2018-19

When is flu season likely to peak in the United States?

Highest-scoring peak week forecasts

Additional forecasts

Highest-scoring forecasts » Additional forecasts »

The charts below show forecast skill scores for each model submitted to the CDC FluSight Challenge, focusing only on forecasts of U.S. peak week. Forecast skill is based on both accuracy (log scores) and confidence (distributional sharpness) over the entire season. It varies as modeling teams update their forecasts each week.

The charts below show forecast skill scores for each model submitted to the CDC FluSight Challenge, focusing only on forecasts of U.S. peak week. Forecast skill is based on both accuracy (log scores) and confidence (distributional sharpness) over the entire season. It varies as modeling teams update their forecasts each week.

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This visualization displays forecasts submitted to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as part of the FluSight influenza forecasting challenge for the 2018-19 flu season. Multiple outside research teams have developed different models that provide flu activity forecasts to CDC, and more information and visualizations of forecasts can be found on the FluSight website and GitHub repo. Peak week, the primary variable shown above, is the week with the highest percentage of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness (i.e. the week of the season when flu activity is the greatest). More precisely, it is defined as the MMWR surveillance week in which the weighted ILINet percentage, rounded to one decimal place, is the highest for the influenza season. Accurate and timely forecasts for the peak week can be useful for planning and promoting activities to increase influenza vaccination prior to the bulk of influenza illness. For public health authorities, forecasts for the peak week can guide efficient staff and resource allocation. To that end, this tool is being provided as an open-source resource for interpreting and visualizing forecasts.

DISCLAIMER: These are neither CDC nor IQT Labs forecasts and the model results on this page are not endorsed or approved by CDC or IQT Labs. These forecasts are based on different models, can vary significantly, and may be inaccurate. These forecasts and data are provided "as is" with no warranties of any kind, and use of this information is at your sole risk. To the maximum extent provided by law, neither IQT Labs and its affiliates nor any government agency or third party shall be liable for any damages of any kind relating to or resulting from use of the information on this site. For more information visit https://www.iqt.org/terms-of-use/. Anyone interested in using these data for additional research or publications is requested to contact CDC for information regarding attribution of the source forecasts.

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